As I’m sure none of you are aware, today could one day very well be looked back upon as one of the most significant in Kenyan history to date. Today Kenyans go to the polls to cast their votes for or against a proposed new constitution—one that has the potential to ensure fairer and more accountable government, more equitable distribution of resources to minorities and under-represented districts, and prevention of further election violence like that following the presidential election of 2007 (see below). It could be a great day for many poor and marginalized Kenyans, who see the change as necessary to restore a government they can believe in. Or it could be a day where the country falls apart and starts tearing itself to pieces. The suspense!
So I know the prospect of an entire post on the intricacies of Kenyan politics is more excitement than you can stand for one day, but let me tempt you just a bit further by starting out with a bleak and depressing history lesson! Flashback to 2007, when the presidential election in Kenya came under dispute—the incumbent, Mwai Kibaki (of the majority Kikuyu ethnicity), claimed victory despite the fact that exit polls indicated his opponent Raila Odinga (of the Luo ethnicity) had actually gotten a larger vote share—the dispute eventually led to roadblocks, violence, and the deaths of over 1000 Kenyans. Here in Busia, you can still see the huge potholes from where cars and tires were burned during the rioting. To finally end the violence, a radical new compromise was reached where Kibaki would keep the presidency but the position of Prime Minister would be created and given to Raila, allowing him a large-but-not-quite-as-large-as-Kibaki’s role in the government. The plan seems to have worked for the most part, but the violence remains fresh enough that Kenyans are extremely motivated to do something, anything, to ensure it never happens again.
Basically, the current proposal was born as a political move by both the President (Kibaki) and the Prime Minister (Raila Odinga) to shore up their respective supporters and legitimize the technically illegal compromise that was dreamed up to end the election violence in 2007. It's being billed as a way to prevent future such conflicts, a means of introducing more accountability in government, and a more federal system (similar to the American system in many ways, actually) that will be more responsive to minorities and won't screw over whichever regions don't happen to be the birthplace of the current head of state. Kibaki wants it to be his "enduring legacy" and Raila wants it to be his platform for the next presidential election. And Hillary Clinton likes it, so there's that.
The more contentious part of it, though, is that there's been a backlash of criticism from many Christians in Kenya--a campaign, I might add, which has been largely funded by one Pat Robertson. It's ugly. Robertson and cronies have been stirring up anti-Muslim sentiment by pointing out that the new constitution allows Muslim kadhi courts to remain in existence (they exist to try divorce and property cases according to Sharia law, and only cases between two Muslims may be heard in them). They're also trying to make the case that the new constitution paves the way for legalized abortion (it doesn't. It institutionalizes the current Kenyan law, which makes an exception allowing abortion when the mother's life is endangered.) Basically a lot of church leaders have been coming off looking like ignorant bigots, and it's sad. While I think many Kenyans are putting far too much faith in the new constitution to solve all their governmental problems, and while a sober reality check is probably a good thing, that's not what the Christians here are offering.
For those of you interested in learning more about the issues at stake, I’d recommend the following articles (the NY Times one overemphasizes the ethnic-tension-angle, in my opinion—gotta sell those papers somehow, but the ethnic issues are far less salient here than you would think):
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/04/world/africa/04kenya.html?_r=2&th&emc=th
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_Constitution_of_Kenya,_2009
It is perhaps fittingly ominous that I’m writing this as a huge thunderstorm rolls in, although the obligatory power outage, gusting winds, and dark clouds on the horizon are pretty much exactly the opposite of the metaphor I’m trying to evoke here. We don’t expect any nasty stuff to go down, but we’ve been instructed to stay home today as a precaution and there are evacuation plans in place if things get dicey. As an employee of an organization that takes great care not to take political sides in this sort of thing, I’m not allowed to express a position one way or the other here, but I can tell you that every Kenyan I’ve talked to has been extremely excited to go vote, and all the latest opinion polls have the “yes” crowd miles ahead (granted, these are Kenyan newspaper polls, so however many grains of salt you like to take with your typical American political poll, you should probably triple that dosage here). If anything, people around here are probably putting too much faith in the changes that the constitution will make. My prediction, for what it’s worth: the constitution will be ratified by a comfortable margin, but that it will be pretty much business as usual when it comes to actually implementing it—that is, the average Kenyan isn’t going to see a huge substantive change in the government or services provided, at least not immediately. But it’s exciting to see the enthusiasm, and I’ll certainly join in the celebrations tomorrow if it does in fact pass.
For those of you who don’t really care about any of this and just skipped to the end hoping for some cute animal photos…
Too bad. I can't find my memory card reader. Better luck next time--which I promise will not be two weeks from now.
I am not that politically savvy however this is truly heart breaking and know that my prayers are with you and all of kenya.
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